UrbanUpdate

The race to produce a coronavirus vaccine is proceeding faster than anyone would have dared to hope just a month or two ago. The federal government has approved one vaccine, at least two others appear highly effective, and nurses are already receiving the shot in the U.S.

Because we’ve all become armchair infectious disease experts this year, we know this all to be very exciting. But since googling “Fauci holiday advice” does not an expert make, there are still some confusing details to break down, from Dolly Parton’s involvement to when you can go to the movies again.

Do the vaccines work?

As hard as it is to believe any good news about the coronavirus pandemic, yes, the vaccines work. So far, two have emerged in the US: one is manufactured by Pfizer in partnership with a German company called BioNTech, and another is made by Moderna. Both rely on new technology that’s never been approved for human use before—they use targeted chunks of mRNA, genetic material, rather than the traditional doses of weakened virus, to prompt the body to produce the correct virus-fighting antibodies.

These cutting-edge vaccines are going to be complicated to administer: both vaccines require injections of two doses several weeks apart, and both vaccines must be kept frozen to work correctly. This is a hurdle in particular for the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, which must be kept at 70 degrees below zero, much colder than a standard freezer—the company has developed special packaging to keep it cold. (The Moderna vaccine is stable at a temperatures closer to a home freezer, a requirement that doctors and hospitals are more used to dealing with.)

Across the pond, a joint effort by Oxford University and AstraZeneca has also gone into distribution. While this vaccine is only reporting a 70% efficacy rate right now, and some questions have been raised about how ironclad that number is, this one is particularly exciting because it relies on a less complex type of technology (read: not involving mRNA) will make it much easier to distribute. This is mainly thanks to its temperature flexibility: it only needs to be kept around 40 degrees to last six months. Experts are predicting the Oxford vaccine will be a more viable option to immunize low and middle income countries—it costs about one thirtieth as much as the Moderna vaccine, and AstraZeneca is the only leading manufacturer that's pledged doses to COVAX, the WHO's Avengers-style partnership responsible for distributing the vaccine to developing nations.

Other vaccines using the same more conventional technology also seem to be speeding towards success, including baby shampoo purveyor Johnson & Johnson, who's hard at work on a single-shot one. Dr. Fauci himself has confirmed we can likely expect five or six vaccines in the coming months.

Are the first vaccines available?

The FDA has approved Emergency Use Authorization for both vaccines, and the first recipient in the U.S., a critical care nurse at Queens' Long Island Jewish Medical Center, officially received her initial dose in a Cuomo-run livestream on December 14. Medical workers across the country are now receiving vaccinations, as are various senators and members of the Trump administration.

Who is getting the first vaccines?

On December 1, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, an independent group that will be advising the CDC on distribution, passed a proposal dubbed “Phase 1a” to outline the first steps of vaccine rollout. The first batch of vaccinations authorized for emergency use is being made available to the highest risk and the highest exposure groups: residents of long-term care facilities—this includes both the elderly in nursing homes and younger patients—and particularly at-risk health care workers. On December 20, the committee reconvened to make recommendations on the next batch of vaccinations, landing on people over 75 and a group dubbed “frontline essential workers,” which includes everyone from firefighters and other emergency responders to teachers and grocery store clerks. That whole second batch tallies up to about 51 million people.

Most experts expect states to follow CDC guidance, although they are not legally required to do so. A lot of interpretation will likely happen at state levels, like which regions get shots first, or where hospital staff like food service employees and janitors will fall on the list of priorities. That “frontline essential worker” group that casts such a wide net? Also up to state interpretation. Finally, states will decide is who to prioritize if supplies run low—for example, emergency room doctors and nurses might go ahead of other health care workers.

O.K., but when will I get a vaccine?

If you’re not among the above group, the timeline gets a little more wonky. Both companies have pledged to make enough vaccines for 22.5 million Americans by January, which is less than one tenth of the population and falls just short of the 23 million Americans covered by Phase 1a. After that, experts are even more concerned about how fast the vaccines can be made. (Pfizer’s pledge to make 100 million doses by the end of this year has already been slashed in half, with only a few million doses arriving in the U.S. so far although they say millions more are ready. Add the 5.9 million from Moderna, and that brings us to, optimistically, half of what's needed for the first phase.)

The other big concern is distribution, which will be left largely to the discretion of individual states. Without federal funding, few states will be able to efficiently ensure everyone gets a vaccine, even if supply meets their needs. Particulars like storing the vaccine at the right temperature, making sure everyone gets both doses, and tracking everyone’s responsiveness will all pose massive challenges.

Fauci has publicly estimated that average Americans will start getting vaccines in late March. Governor Cuomo seems to feel slightly less optimistic about New York specifically: he anticipated having enough vaccines for a critical mass of the city's inhabitants in June. 

What about our ongoing political shitshow?

As far as we can tell, Biden’s officials have not been privy to details that will help them jump in to steer the ship on handling COVID-19. Moncef Slaoui, the chief science advisor for the White House's vaccine initiative, led a senate-wide conference call in late November confirming that the Trump team had no plans to brief anyone on the Biden team about vaccine distribution. 

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Trump, being who he is, has already used the vaccine as a cudgel, claiming his administration would not be delivering the vaccine to New York given Governor Cuomo’s opposition to his presidency. On December 8, having already bungled a deal with Pfizer that would have gotten us more than the promised 100 million doses, Trump attempted to shove the country to the front of the line with a toothless executive order. When asked to elaborate on the order, Slaoui said, “I literally don't know.” 

When can I have a life again?

Whatever post-COVID life looks like is unfortunately still a long way off. Ugur Sahin, the CEO of BioNTech, has predicted a “normal winter” in late 2021. One professor at Oxford has optimistically suggested that life could return to normal by spring. The U.S., of course, probably faces the longest trajectory to a post-COVID future, given the chaotic distribution process and the fact that about half of Americans have said they don’t even want to take the vaccine. It's also a bit of an open question how long immunity will last. 

Also, if all of this good news has you feeling extra reckless, maybe like we've basically got the virus beat, think again. The fact that a vaccine is imminent actually strengthens the argument for lockdowns and other disruptions to daily life to prevent the spread—it's our job now to bend the curve (remember that?) until the vaccine arrives.

Another downside to all this: we don't know whether vaccinated people can still spread COVID-19. So even those who've received both shots will still need to wear masks, social distance, and take all the usual precautions to keep their communities safe. The country (or state, or district, or even world) needs to reach a critical mass—a buzzword we'll likely be hearing a lot over the next few months—of vaccinated people for life without COVID-19 precautions to resume.

Where does Dolly Parton fit into all this?

On a more positive note, Parton made a $1 million donation to COVID-19 research at Vanderbilt back in April, which ultimately got funneled towards research for Moderna’s vaccine. The donation was apparently so impactful that her name appeared alongside other sponsors on the preliminary vaccine report.

Did Jennifer Ehle boldly test the vaccine on herself, bypassing the government-mandated process, in order to save the world?

No, but the German couple who run BioNTech together have a pretty cool backstory.

Danielle Cohen is GQ's Editorial Business Assistant.Related Stories for GQCoronavirusHealthCoronavirus Vaccine